The surprisingly powerful thinking skill that will change how you make decisions
Have you ever tried something new and then credited it for a good outcome, only to try it again and get nothing?
You started a new morning routine and had a great week at work. You cut out sugar and your energy improved. You hired a new babysitter and suddenly your kid slept better.
Or in business: you ran a sale and revenue spiked. You posted three times a day on Instagram and your following grew. You rebranded and new customers started coming in.
Here’s the uncomfortable truth: in most of these cases, you might have no idea what actually caused the result.
Welcome to one of the most useful critical thinking skills you can develop: understanding the difference between correlation and causation.
The Simple Version
Correlation means two things happen at the same time, or move in the same direction. Causation means one thing directly causes the other.
The problem? Our brains are wired to see patterns and assume one caused the other. It’s an efficiency shortcut that often works. But when it doesn’t, we end up making decisions based on stories instead of reality.
The classic example: ice cream sales go up in summer. So do drowning rates. They’re correlated. But eating ice cream doesn’t cause drowning. Hot weather causes both, independently. Seems obvious when it’s ice cream. Less obvious when it’s your business, your health decisions, or your parenting choices.
This Shows Up Everywhere in Real Life
- In your health: You started taking a new supplement and felt better. But you also started sleeping more, drinking more water, and the weather got warmer that week. Which thing helped?
- In parenting: You tried a new bedtime routine and your toddler slept through the night. Or was this just the week they finally outgrew a regression?
- In business: You redesigned your website and inquiries went up. But you also got a mention in a local article that week. What actually drove the traffic?
- In relationships: You started communicating differently and things improved. Or did a stressful season naturally pass, making both of you feel more connected?
None of this means your actions didn’t help. They might have. But knowing the difference matters, because it changes what you do next.
Why Our Brains Get This Wrong
We are story-making machines. When two things happen close together, we instinctively link them into a narrative: I did X, then Y happened, so X caused Y.
This was actually useful for survival. Quick pattern recognition kept early humans alive. But in a complex modern world with dozens of variables all shifting at once, this shortcut leads us astray constantly.
It also plays into something psychologists call confirmation bias: once we believe something worked, we notice all the times it seems to confirm our belief, and dismiss the times it doesn’t.
A Few Questions That Help
When you notice a result and want to understand what caused it, pause and ask:
- What else changed? Almost always, multiple things shifted at the same time. Try to list them all before drawing a conclusion.
- Would this have happened anyway? Kids grow out of phases. Businesses have seasonal cycles. Markets shift. Would you have gotten here regardless?
- Could the cause and effect be reversed? Sometimes we have it backwards. Could the outcome have produced the behavior you’re observing, rather than the other way around?
- Can I test it again? If you do the same thing in different circumstances and get the same result, you’re building evidence. One-time outcomes are data points, not proof.
Why This Matters for Decision-Making
Once you start thinking this way, you become a much better decision-maker, whether that’s for your family, your business, your health, or your relationships.
You stop wasting energy on things that were coincidental. You stop abandoning things that are actually working because of one bad week. You ask better questions. You invest in what’s actually driving results.
You also become more compassionate with yourself. That hard season wasn’t caused by the one thing you changed. That win wasn’t just luck. Understanding causality helps you take appropriate credit and appropriate responsibility.
The Takeaway
The next time something goes well (or badly), resist the urge to immediately credit or blame the most recent thing you changed.
Sit with it. Ask what else was happening. Look for the hidden variables. Try to separate the story from the evidence.
You don’t have to be a scientist to think more clearly. You just have to slow down and ask why before you decide what next.
That pause is worth more than almost any strategy, supplement, or system.
